MOBILITY
The Linking of Space
Geographer and futurologist Stefan Carsten has been looking into the future of mobility for more than 20 years. This is reflected, among other things, in his Mobility Report, which he produces once a year for the Zukunftsinstitut in Frankfurt am Main. In the report he highlights current developments and outlines proposed solutions for reducing traffic congestion and its consequences for our environment, health and climate. He is also a member of the advisory board of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and teaches at the Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences.
Alexander Russ: Stefan, you are on the advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Transport and develop strategic guidelines for the future of public transport in Germany. What exactly do you do there?
Stefan Carsten: As a futurologist, I try to develop a very broad and holistic understanding of the future of cities and space in general. In doing so, I always ask myself what this means regarding mobility. I exchange ideas about this with others and research what developments there are that can be used to modernise transport in Germany.
You compile the Mobility Report for the Zukunftsinstitut in Frankfurt am Main once a year. What's it about?
Stefan Carsten: I've done it twice so far. My first Mobility Report was very much about the transformation of space. A term like "road diet" is very important for me in this context. This means that parking spaces and car lanes are removed to make them available to pedestrians and cyclists. Another topic concerns so-called "mobility seekers", i.e. people who are dedicated to being creative about mobility. This means being flexible with regard to your own mobility and breaking with the idea that getting around is only possible with one's own car. The so-called "Generation Z" in particular is looking for more independence in their own mobility. My second Mobility Report was very much about the topic of electromobility and looking at how the automotive industry is dealing with the changes. Mary Barra, the CEO of General Motors, for example, has announced that her company will no longer build any cars with combustion engines as of 2035. So the battery will be the drive system of the future.
What difference will that make?
Stefan Carsten: Among other things, this has implications for the associated infrastructure. Instead of petrol stations, there will be "mobility hubs" that connect different mobility concepts, but can also be meeting points for social and cultural exchange. This will change the way we use cars. In this context, the bicycle is already experiencing a major upswing as a means of transport – for example in the form of cargo bikes that are electrically powered and are now considered the status symbol of a new type of mobility.
To what extent can the bicycle-friendly city, as implemented in Copenhagen, for example, be transferred to other European cities?
Stefan Carsten: This is a very easy concept to transfer and many cities are really interested in it. A good example is Milan, where the whole city centre is currently being rebuilt to become more bicycle-friendly – and to bring more life into the public space. Another example is the Bahnstadt in Heidelberg. New districts are being built in the city, and although their architectural quality can certainly be questioned, the infrastructure is nevertheless based on the bicycle and not on the car. Incidentally, the whole thing is also an economic transformation process: We are increasingly detaching ourselves from the industrial city and its infrastructure, and we are moving towards a knowledge-based city and economy. For this, we need different spaces.
To what extent does this also apply to Germany as an industrial nation, and what conflicts can arise as a result?
Stefan Carsten: This doesn't necessarily have to be a big conflict, because industry is also changing dramatically. One example is the growth of IG Metall (the Industrial Union of Metalworkers). But this growth is based on IT jobs such as programmers. A large share of the jobs in Germany are in industry, but the structure of these jobs is now changing significantly.
What do new mobility concepts and the transformation to a knowledge-based economy mean for the automotive industry?
Stefan Carsten: We will indeed lose many jobs in the automotive industry in the coming years and decades. This is because, on the one hand, many necessary phases of development have simply not occurred, while on the other hand the entire model on which car production is based is also changing. In the future, an electric car will consist of little more than a few main modules, which will significantly simplify production. This means that more and more companies will be able to produce cars.
Which other topics do you talk about in the Mobility Report?
Stefan Carsten: One major topic is autonomous driving. There are positive as well as negative developments here that we already have to start thinking about today. With autonomous driving, for instance, people will spend more time in vehicles and cover longer commuting distances. At the same time, thanks to WLAN, they will be able to do all kinds of things in these capsules – from data processing to video calls or even virtual opera visits.
What's the current situation with regard to autonomous driving?
Stefan Carsten: This year we'll see the first RoboCab, i.e. the first autonomous taxi, on the streets of Munich. The car will still have a safety driver, but this is nevertheless a big step towards a new type of mobility. This will certainly have an impact on public transport, taxi companies and ultimately on our own personal mobility – for example, when we use a vehicle for ourselves via an app and then have it drive us from A to B, possibly even free of charge.
How would such a trip be paid for?
Stefan Carsten: Through advertising. The concept uses the same logic the internet does – which will of course change public space, as there may be thousands of these "capsules" on the road in the future. This is a dystopian scenario and the question is how cities can prepare for it. This makes the "road diet" I mentioned at the beginning, where road space is reduced, all the more urgent.
What are the positive aspects of autonomous driving?
Stefan Carsten: In suburban or rural areas autonomous capsules could provide low-cost mobility that would give people easier access to public transport. This would in turn close gaps in infrastructure and help bring about a strong decentralisation of space, allowing people to live anywhere they pleased.
What mobility concepts are there when it comes to linking urban and suburban areas with rural ones?
Stefan Carsten: This really is a fundamental point, because so far the conversation has only been about inner cities. But as long as we don't think of space as a whole, a new transportation revolution can't succeed. This requires us to change our existing infrastructure – bicycle paths, for example, which then need to be expanded not only in city centres but in suburban areas as well; something Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, is currently planning. Another example is the Grand Paris Express infrastructure plan, where large "mobility hubs" will connect Paris' different districts with each other. Different mobility typologies, such as autonomous metros and long-distance buses, will come together at these hubs. This could help to overcome the strong spatial separation that exists in Paris between the city centre and the surrounding suburban area.
Does this also apply to functional planning for the individual districts?
Stefan Carsten: Yes, and in this context the concept of the "15-minute city" is very interesting. This idea specifies that every urban function can be reached on foot or by bicycle in 15 minutes – be it leisure, health, education, shopping or recreation. There will then be no more mono-functional urban districts, but instead areas that function self-sufficiently and serve as a model of modern-day planning. You will no longer need a car to cross mono-functional spaces because you have all the functions you need in the immediate neighbourhood.
In rural areas infrastructure is still based on roads and cars, however. Are there alternative mobility concepts for these areas, such as the Hyperloop, where we would be transported from one place to another through high-speed tubes?
Stefan Carsten: I have my doubts that Germany will invest billions of euros to implement new types of infrastructure – especially when nature conservation and biodiversity are an issue. Instead, a "multicoding" of the roads will take place. This means that roads will not only be used by cars, but also by bicycles and autonomously driven capsules.
We now also have cable car projects for public transport, such as the "Câble 1" project in Paris. How useful are such concepts?
Stefan Carsten: I'm not familiar with the particular project you mentioned and therefore can't say anything about it. Generally, cable cars are more associated with tourism and their strength certainly lies in overcoming obstacles. Cable cars not intended for tourists are used as a means of transport in favelas, as they can react flexibly to the existing topography. There are now a number of projects in such areas. Another example would be the use of cable cars to overcome large railway lines or water areas in infrastructure planning. This could help supplement existing systems.
What about air taxis from start-ups like Volocopter or Lilium – can such concepts help to relieve traffic?
Stefan Carsten: In Germany it certainly doesn't make sense, because there are simply better alternatives here. In other regions, such as Saudi Arabia, the situation is different: One example is the post-fossil urban project "Neom - The Line", the master plan of which was developed by Foster + Partners. Decentralised drone landing pads will be built in order to take people to the airport. In a planned city in the desert, where there is no other infrastructure, such concepts may make sense – but certainly not in our more established European metropolises.
